The 6-Factor Model
Six independent factors. Each scored separately. Each weighted by predictive power. Combined into a single conviction score and market bias. Built from 7+ years of live trading data.
Daily Pattern Analysis
The most predictive single factor. Analyzes recurring 24-hour price action cycles unique to each asset. Crypto markets follow behavioral rhythms driven by global trading sessions, funding rate resets, and retail psychology. Knowing the pattern gives directional edge.
- ▸Recurring intraday open-to-close pattern shape
- ▸Funding rate reset behavior (8-hour cycles)
- ▸Asian / London / NY session bias per asset
- ▸Retail sentiment cycle within 24 hours
- Strong morning buy-side pattern on BTC — BULLISH lean
- Post-midnight dump pattern active on ETH — BEARISH lean
- No clear pattern today on SOL — reduces conviction
Volume Analysis
Volume does not lie. Price moves with conviction have volume backing them. Divergence between price and volume is the earliest warning signal. Measures accumulation vs distribution, relative volume, and smart money flow.
- ▸Relative volume vs 30-day average
- ▸Accumulation vs distribution pressure
- ▸Smart money flow (large block trades)
- ▸Price-volume divergence detection
- BTC rallying on 2.3x avg volume — confirms BULLISH
- ETH pumping on 0.4x avg volume — low conviction, caution
- SOL dropping on 4x volume — strong BEARISH confirmation
Timeframe Alignment
Multi-timeframe confluence. A signal on the 1H that contradicts the daily trend is noise. InDecision only counts signals where the 15m, 1H, 4H, and Daily all agree on direction. Alignment amplifies accuracy.
- ▸15-minute, 1H, 4H, and Daily trend direction
- ▸Degree of alignment across all timeframes
- ▸Conflict detection (noise filter)
- ▸Higher timeframe trend dominance
- BTC: 15m/1H/4H/Daily all bullish — full alignment, +score
- ETH: 1H bullish, 4H neutral, Daily bearish — conflict, score penalized
- SOL: All timeframes bearish — max BEARISH weight applied
Technical Confluence
Where price structures, key levels, and indicators all converge. Not any single indicator — confluence of support/resistance, moving averages, RSI, and Fibonacci levels. Multiple independent signals pointing the same direction.
- ▸Key support/resistance level proximity
- ▸Moving average stack alignment (20/50/200)
- ▸RSI divergence and momentum state
- ▸Fibonacci retracement confluence zones
- BTC at 50-day MA + key S/R + RSI reclaiming 50 — BULLISH
- ETH RSI divergence at Fib 0.618 — early reversal signal
- SOL broke major structure with volume — BEARISH confirmation
Market Timing
The when matters as much as the what. Time-of-day patterns, day-of-week biases, session overlaps, and macro event calendar. Entering a technically valid trade at the wrong market time cuts probability by 20-30%.
- ▸Time-of-day historical win rate by asset
- ▸Day-of-week directional bias (crypto has strong Mon/Fri patterns)
- ▸Session overlap periods (London/NY highest volatility)
- ▸FOMC, CPI, and major macro event proximity
- Monday AM on BTC historically 64% bullish — adds weight
- FOMC in 4 hours — reduces conviction across all signals
- London/NY overlap opening — high-probability entry window
Risk Context
Dynamic weight based on market regime. Bull markets expand position sizing; bear markets compress it. VIX equivalent, BTC dominance, and macro backdrop feed into risk context. A high-conviction signal in a bad market regime is still a dangerous trade.
- ▸Crypto Fear & Greed Index (regime classifier)
- ▸BTC dominance trend (risk-on vs risk-off rotation)
- ▸Funding rate extremes across exchanges
- ▸Macro backdrop (DXY, equity correlation, global liquidity)
- Fear & Greed at 18 (Extreme Fear) — all signals discounted 30%
- BTC dominance rising — altcoins face headwinds regardless
- Funding rates at -0.08% — short squeeze risk elevated
67% — Where That Number Comes From
The 67% figure is the live win rate across high and medium conviction signals on BTC, ETH, and SOL. Low conviction signals are suppressed — InDecision does not force a call when the data is unclear. No signal is also a signal.
Why 6 Factors?
Most traders use 1-2 indicators. They get confirmation bias and overfit to recent market conditions. InDecision was designed around a core principle: no single factor is reliable enough on its own.
Six was the number where adding more factors stopped improving accuracy and started adding noise. Fewer than six left too many edge cases uncovered — especially around market timing and regime risk. Six captures the full decision surface without overfitting.
The weights are not arbitrary. They reflect 7+ years of trading data and iteration. Daily Pattern (30%) earns its weight because crypto markets are fundamentally behavioral — the same psychology plays out in the same windows every day. Volume (25%) earns its weight because it is the most manipulation-resistant signal available.
Risk Context is dynamic by design. In a raging bull market, it compresses toward zero — everything works. In a bear market or high-uncertainty regime, it expands to cut conviction across all signals. The framework adapts to macro reality instead of ignoring it.
See the Framework in Action
Weekly signals with full factor breakdowns. Every call explained. No black box.